Those who would revolt against an autocrat often face a dilemma caused by uncertainty: they would like to revolt if the ruler would respond with democratization, but they would prefer to concede if the ruler would choose instead to violently suppress the revolution. Consequently, the autocrat must decide how to best signal his willingness to use violence in hope of deterring revolt. Using a simple signaling model, we find that rulers cannot meaningfully convey their type by transferring wealth to the citizenry. However, they can convey their type through shows of force, as long as the strong type of autocrat – who would use violent repression in the case of revolution – has a competitive advantage in displaying his strength. We additionally demonstrate that rulers favor shows of force when their willingness to suppress revolution is questioned and that citizens at times prefer to pay the direct cost of shows of force to learn about the ruler's type, rather than to remain uninformed. The results illustrate a more general result in costly signaling models: information transmission is only possible when the cost of the signal is smaller for the type that wants to distinguish himself.
AbstractMany enduring questions in international relations theory focus on power relations, so it is important that scholars have a good measure of relative power. The standard measure of relative military power, the capability ratio, is barely better than random guessing at predicting militarized dispute outcomes. We use machine learning to build a superior proxy, the Dispute Outcome Expectations (DOE) score, from the same underlying data. Our measure is an order of magnitude better than the capability ratio at predicting dispute outcomes. We replicate Reed et al. (2008) and find, contrary to the original conclusions, that the probability of conflict is always highest when the state with the least benefits has a preponderance of power. In replications of 18 other dyadic analyses that use power as a control, we find that replacing the standard measure with DOE scores usually improves both in‐sample and out‐of‐sample goodness of fit.
Informal, 'notice-and-comment', rulemaking is the prototypical mechanism employed by US regulators. However, agencies frequently claim their actions exempt from the process, and courts typically agree. Agencies thus face an important strategic choice between informal rulemaking and avoidance. To study this choice, we analyze a model of rulemaking with exemption and empirically analyze agency avoidance. Our model implies that more biased agencies engage in less avoidance, as they face more skepticism from the courts and, thus, require support from group comments to have their rules upheld. Empirically, we find support for this prediction. As for policy implications, we show it is more beneficial to allow exemptions when the agency is more biased.
List of illustrations -- Acknowledgments -- Introduction -- Why tax consumption? -- The case for the X tax -- Maintaining progressivity -- Fringe benefits and transfer payments -- Business firms -- Financial services -- International transactions -- The transition -- The nonbusiness sector -- The VAT alternative -- Conclusion -- Notes -- References -- About the authors -- Illustrations -- Figures
Abstract The ability of bacteria to colonize and grow on different surfaces is an essential process for biofilm development. Here, we report the use of synthetic hydrogels with tunable stiffness and porosity to assess physical effects of the substrate on biofilm development. Using time-lapse microscopy to track the growth of expanding Serratia marcescens colonies, we find that biofilm colony growth can increase with increasing substrate stiffness, unlike what is found on traditional agar substrates. Using traction force microscopy-based techniques, we find that biofilms exert transient stresses correlated over length scales much larger than a single bacterium, and that the magnitude of these forces also increases with increasing substrate stiffness. Our results are consistent with a model of biofilm development in which the interplay between osmotic pressure arising from the biofilm and the poroelastic response of the underlying substrate controls biofilm growth and morphology.
The Global Alliance for Genomics and Health (GA4GH) aims to accelerate biomedical advances by enabling the responsible sharing of clinical and genomic data through both harmonized data aggregation and federated approaches. The decreasing cost of genomic sequencing (along with other genome-wide molecular assays) and increasing evidence of its clinical utility will soon drive the generation of sequence data from tens of millions of humans, with increasing levels of diversity. In this perspective, we present the GA4GH strategies for addressing the major challenges of this data revolution. We describe the GA4GH organization, which is fueled by the development efforts of eight Work Streams and informed by the needs of 24 Driver Projects and other key stakeholders. We present the GA4GH suite of secure, interoperable technical standards and policy frameworks and review the current status of standards, their relevance to key domains of research and clinical care, and future plans of GA4GH. Broad international participation in building, adopting, and deploying GA4GH standards and frameworks will catalyze an unprecedented effort in data sharing that will be critical to advancing genomic medicine and ensuring that all populations can access its benefits. ; B.P.C. acknowledges funding from Abigail Wexner Research Institute at Nationwide Children's Hospital; T.H. Nyrönen acknowledges funding from Academy of Finland grant #31996; A.M.-J., K.N., T.F.B., O.M.H., and Z.S. acknowledge funding from Australian Medical Research Future Fund; M.S. acknowledges funding from Biobank Japan; D. Bujold and S.J.M.J. acknowledge funding from Canada Foundation for Innovation; L.J.D. acknowledges funding from Canada Foundation for Innovation Cyber Infrastructure grant #34860; D. Bujold and G.B. acknowledge funding from CANARIE; L.J.D. acknowledges funding from CANARIE Research Data Management contract #RDM-090 (CHORD) and #RDM2-053 (ClinDIG); K.K.-L. acknowledges funding from CanSHARE; T.L.T. acknowledges funding from Chan Zuckerberg Initiative; T. Burdett acknowledges funding from Chan Zuckerberg Initiative grant #2017-171671; D. Bujold, G.B., and L.D.S. acknowledge funding from CIHR; L.J.D. acknowledges funding from CIHR grant #404896; M.J.S.B. acknowledges funding from CIHR grant #SBD-163124; M. Courtot and M. Linden acknowledge funding from CINECA project EU Horizon 2020 grant #825775; D. Bujold and G.B. acknowledge funding from Compute Canada; F.M.-G. acknowledges funding from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation) – NFDI 1/1 "GHGA – German Human Genome-Phenome Archive; R.M.H.-S. acknowledges funding from Duke-Margolis Center for Health Policy; S.B. and A.J.B. acknowledge funding from EJP-RD EU Horizon 2020 grant #825575; A. Niewielska, A.K., D.S., G.I.S., J.A.T., J.R., M.A.K., M. Baudis, M. Linden, S.B., S.S., T.H. Nyrönen, and T.M.K. acknowledge funding from ELIXIR; A. Niewielska acknowledges funding from EOSC-Life EU Horizon 2020 grant #824087; J.-P.H. acknowledges funding from ETH Domain Strategic Focal Area "Personalized Health and Related Technologies (PHRT)" grant #2017-201; F.M.-G. acknowledges funding from EUCANCan EU Horizon 2020 grant #825835; B.M.K., D. Bujold, G.B., L.D.S., M.J.S.B., N.S., S.E.W., and Y.J. acknowledge funding from Genome Canada; B.M.K., M.J.S.B., S.E.W., and Y.J. acknowledge funding from Genome Quebec; F.M.-G. acknowledges funding from German Human Genome-Phenome Archive; C. Voisin acknowledges funding from Google; A.J.B. acknowledges funding from Health Data Research UK Substantive Site Award; D.H. acknowledges funding from Howard Hughes Medical Institute; S.B. acknowledges funding from Instituto de Salud Carlos III; S.-S.K. and K.T. acknowledge funding from Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development (AMED); S. Ogishima acknowledges funding from Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development (AMED) grant #20kk0205014h0005; C.Y. and K. Kosaki acknowledge funding from Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development (AMED) grant #JP18kk0205012; GEM Japan acknowledges funding from Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development (AMED) grants #19kk0205014h0004, #20kk0205014h0005, #20kk0205013h0005, #20kk0205012h0005, #20km0405401h0003, and #19km0405001h0104; J.R. acknowledges funding from La Caixa Foundation under project #LCF/PR/GN13/50260009; R.R.F. acknowledges funding from Mayo Clinic Center for Individualized Medicine; Y.J. and S.E.W. acknowledge funding from Ministère de l'Économie et de l'Innovation du Québec for the Can-SHARE Connect Project; S.E.W. and S.O.M.D. acknowledge funding from Ministère de l'Économie et de l'Innovation du Québec for the Can-SHARE grant #141210; M.A.H., M.C.M.-T., J.O.J., H.E.P., and P.N.R. acknowledge funding from Monarch Initiative grant #R24OD011883 and Phenomics First NHGRI grant #1RM1HG010860; A.L.M. and E.B. acknowledge funding from MRC grant #MC_PC_19024; P.T. acknowledges funding from National University of Singapore and Agency for Science, Technology and Research; J.M.C. acknowledges funding from NHGRI; A.H.W. acknowledges funding from NHGRI awards K99HG010157, R00HG010157, and R35HG011949; A.M.-J., K.N., D.P.H., O.M.H., T.F.B., and Z.S. acknowledge funding from NHMRC grants #GNT1113531 and #GNT2000001; D.L.C. acknowledges funding from NHMRC Ideas grant #1188098; A.B.S. acknowledges funding from NHMRC Investigator Fellowship grant #APP177524; J.M.C. and L.D.S. acknowledge funding from NIH; A.A.P. acknowledges funding from NIH Anvil; A.V.S. acknowledges funding from NIH contract #HHSN268201800002I (TOPMed Informatics Research Center); S.U. acknowledges funding from NIH ENCODE grant #UM1HG009443; M.C.M.-T. and M.A.H. acknowledge funding from NIH grant #1U13CA221044; R.J.C. acknowledges funding from NIH grants #1U24HG010262 and #1U2COD023196; M.G. acknowledges funding from NIH grant #R00HG007940; J.B.A., S.L., P.G., E.B., H.L.R., and L.S. acknowledge funding from NIH grant #U24HG011025; K.P.E. acknowledges funding from NIH grant #U2C-RM-160010; J.A.E. acknowledges funding from NIH NCATS grant #U24TR002306; M.M. acknowledges funding from NIH NCI contract #HHSN261201400008c and ID/IQ Agreement #17X146 under contract #HHSN2612015000031 and #75N91019D00024; R.M.C.-D. acknowledges funding from NIH NCI grant #R01CA237118; M. Cline acknowledges funding from NIH NCI grant #U01CA242954; K.P.E. acknowledges funding from NIH NCI ITCR grant #1U24CA231877-01; O.L.G. acknowledges funding from NIH NCI ITCR grant #U24CA237719; R.L.G. acknowledges funding from NIH NCI task order #17X147F10 under contract #HHSN261200800001E; A.F.R. acknowledges funding from NIH NHGRI grant #RM1HG010461; N.M. and L.J.Z. acknowledge funding from NIH NHGRI grant #U24HG006941; R.R.F., T.H. Nelson, L.J.B., and H.L.R. acknowledge funding from NIH NHGRI grant #U41HG006834; B.J.W. acknowledges funding from NIH NHGRI grant #UM1HG009443A; M. Cline acknowledges funding from NIH NHLBI BioData Catalyst Fellowship grant #5118777; M.M. acknowledges funding from NIH NHLBI BioData Catalyst Program grant #1OT3HL142478-01; N.C.S. acknowledges funding from NIH NIGMS grant #R35-GM128636; M.C.M.-T., M.A.H., P.N.R., and R.R.F. acknowledge funding from NIH NLM contract #75N97019P00280; E.B. and A.L.M. acknowledge funding from NIHR; R.G. acknowledges funding from Project Ris3CAT VEIS; S.B. acknowledges funding from RD-Connect, Seventh Framework Program grant #305444; J.K. acknowledges funding from Robertson Foundation; S.B. and A.J.B. acknowledge funding from Solve-RD, EU Horizon 2020 grant #779257; T.S. and S. Oesterle acknowledge funding from Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics (SIB) and Swiss Personalized Health Network (SPHN), supported by the Swiss State Secretariat for Education, Research and Innovation SERI; S.J.M.J. acknowledges funding from Terry Fox Research Institute; A.E.H., M.P.B., M. Cupak, M.F., and J.F. acknowledge funding from the Digital Technology Supercluster; D.F.V. acknowledges funding from the Australian Medical Research Future Fund, as part of the Genomics Health Futures Mission grant #76749; M. Baudis acknowledges funding from the BioMedIT Network project of Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics (SIB) and Swiss Personalized Health Network (SPHN); B.M.K. acknowledges funding from the Canada Research Chair in Law and Medicine and CIHR grant #SBD-163124; D.S., G.I.S., M.A.K., S.B., S.S., and T.H. Nyrönen acknowledge funding from the EU Horizon 2020 Beyond 1 Million Genomes (B1MG) Project grant #951724; P.F., A.D.Y., F.C., H.S., I.U.L., D. Gupta, M. Courtot, S.E.H., T. Burdett, T.M.K., and S.F. acknowledge funding from the European Molecular Biology Laboratory; Y.J. and S.E.W. acknowledge funding from the Government of Canada; P.G. acknowledges funding from the Government of Canada through Genome Canada and the Ontario Genomics Institute (OGI-206); J.Z. acknowledges funding from the Government of Ontario; C.K.Y. acknowledges funding from the Government of Ontario, Canada Foundation for Innovation; C. Viner and M.M.H. acknowledge funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (grant #RGPIN-2015-03948 to M.M.H. and Alexander Graham Bell Canada Graduate Scholarship to C.V.); K.K.-L. acknowledges funding from the Program for Integrated Database of Clinical and Genomic Information; J.K. acknowledges funding from the Robertson Foundation; D.F.V. acknowledges funding from the Victorian State Government through the Operational Infrastructure Support (OIS) Program; A.M.L., R.N., and H.V.F. acknowledge funding from Wellcome (collaborative award); F.C., H.S., P.F., and S.E.H. acknowledge funding from Wellcome Trust grant #108749/Z/15/Z; A.D.Y., H.S., I.U.L., M. Courtot, H.E.P., P.F., and T.M.K. acknowledge funding from Wellcome Trust grant #201535/Z/16/Z; A.M., J.K.B., R.J.M., R.M.D., and T.M.K. acknowledge funding from Wellcome Trust grant #206194; E.B., P.F., P.G., and S.F. acknowledge funding from Wellcome Trust grant #220544/Z/20/Z; A. Hamosh acknowledges funding from NIH NHGRI grant U41HG006627 and U54HG006542; J.S.H. acknowledges funding from National Taiwan University #91F701-45C and #109T098-02; the work of K.W.R. was supported by the Intramural Research Program of the National Library of Medicine, NIH. For the purpose of open access, the author has applied a CC BY public copyright license to any Author Accepted Manuscript version arising from this submission. H.V.F. acknowledges funding from Wellcome Grant 200990/A/16/Z 'Designing, developing and delivering integrated foundations for genomic medicine'. ; Peer reviewed